27 Jul 2008

A personal take on Senator Obama`s speech in Berlin

Jeff at TheCapitolTribune prompted me to comment on this with his analysis of BHOs speech.

Apparently Germans are swaying about, completey mesmerized by the new Messiah from across the Atlantic. At least so the BHO campaign says and US MSM and even some blogs are reprinting this.

Facts / observations:

Reaction in the German MSM to the speech is lukewarm to critical. The consensus is: Yes he is good looking, charismatic, popular, yes he has many things that GWB is quite devoid of and and so are German politicians... but he is superficial, without real content or a record, inexperienced etc. and yes - he will represent American interests as it wd be his duty once elected not ours or those of the oppressed of the earth. There is even some comment about BHO moving to the centre and trying to sound more hawkish.

Generally he still gets a good press. That does not surprise me: I occasionally check German MSM stories with US MSM sources. Result: German MSM, and that includes conservative papers, get their stories predominantly from the centre left US MSM (NYT WAPO and the other usual suspects). This was and is naturally beneficial to BHO.

The present US admin is highly unpopular across the political spectrum in Germany. It is widely regarded as untrustworthy, incompetent and undiplomatic. The consensus is that just about anything wd be better. Again, in the GWB not look alike contest BHO is well placed.

Conservative Germans remember that the German mission in Afghanistan has been sneered at and derided by members of GWBs admin and a certain section of US opinion. I do not except them to forget this for a long, long time. So hawkish conservatives who usually support US foreign policy dislike Bush as much as their left wing counterparts.

Those on the politically correct, antiwar, antiamerican left like BHO generally but they really care about pacifism, not BHO. If he is with them, good, if not, they will find another hero.

My personal experience: I am mostly around middle class Germans in business, 30-50 age group. There is talk of politics, naturally. Nobody even mentioned BHO or his visit recently.
That is not a representative group, mind, as it consists mainly of people who want to know about facts.

Nevertheless my impresssion is that the supposed adulation of BHO is confined to the chattering classes and sandal-wearing 30somtehing students of Gender Studies.

I have not been to France this year yet but I know the country and its people well enough to say with some confidence that the general attitude there is not that different except that GWb is even more unpopular (if that is still possible) in France.

Given the mood in the US at present I do wonder whether a ringing endorsement from old europe is a good thing for a candidate anyway.


Update: I ve been asked about sources:

MSM opinion in German only:

http://www.ftd.de/meinung/kommentare/:Pressestimmen_Obama_%FCberaus_d%FCrftig_und_entt%E4uschend_flach/390141.html


Internet survey in the mainstream conservative FAZ (Frankfurter allgemeine Zeitung) with a rough translation:

http://www.faz.net/s/homepage.html

Results:

Obama in Berlin: Ist die Aufregung über seinen Auftritt gerechtfertigt?
Obama in Berlin: Is the excitement about his visit/ speech justified:

Certainly, he is the future President
Auf jeden Fall, er ist der künftige amerikanische Präsident: 532 Stimmen
8,70%

Too much noise about a senator from Ill.
Zu viel Lärm um einen Senator aus lllinois: 1093 Stimmen
17,87%

Europe is deluding itself:
Europa macht sich über Obama Illusionen: 1771 Stimmen
28,96%

A new era of transatlantic relations is beginning with Obama:
Mit ihm beginnt eine neue Ära transatlantischer Beziehungen: 488 Stimmen
7,98%

Obama is only using Berlin as a backdrop in his bid for election:
Obama nutzt Berlin nur als Wahlkampfkulisse: 1992 Stimmen
32,57%

Yes, it is a historic visit:
Ja, das ist ein historischer Besuch: 240 Stimmen
3,92%

Total of votes:
Insgesamt wurden 6116 Stimmen abgegeben.

End of quote

So 78.4 % of respondents wd agree that it is much noise about a senator, Europe is deluding itself or Obama is only using Berlin as a backdrop in his bid for election. That is not a "scientific" result of course. FAZ readers are supposedly conservatives with a high level of education, so the target group is not representative. However, the result does not look like nationwide Obamania either.

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